The board
768 H200 · Jan–Jun 2027 · US East
Dodona Value · Sample contract
−$937.7K
Range −$8.86M to $12.01M · 96.0¢ on the dollar · Listed · asking 88¢
Value to the holder of the remaining 3.34M GPU-hours, as of 20 Oct 2026. Ornn GPU index as of 19 Oct 2026 Live · method v0.1-testIndex data: Ornn daily index, used here for demonstration only; not licensed for commercial valuation.
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Value over the last 90 days
Each point re-values the contract on that day, using that day's index and the hours still remaining then.
Term sheet
Contract
- GPU
- H200
- Count
- 768
- Configuration
- SXM-IB
- Region
- US East
- Window
- 1 Jan 2027 – 30 Jun 2027
- Remaining GPU-hours
$23.69M still to pay - 3.34M
- Contract price
- $7.10/h
- Term type
- Take-or-pay
Market and credit
- Index today
Ornn H200 index - $6.35/h
- Forward average
After ×1.00 region and config basis - $6.79/h
- Price gap
Forward average minus contract price - −$0.31/h
- Volatility
Annualised from weekly changes - 73.4%
- Provider
Tier-1 neocloud - B+ · 78c bonds
- Default hazard
Implied by the bond price - 18.3%/yr
- Discount rate
- 5.0%/yr
How this value is computed
- Market today. Take the latest index price for this GPU. Measure how much it moves week to week (volatility) and its recent trend (drift). Weekly changes are used because the daily index swings and snaps back, which overstates risk over months. Cap the trend at 30% a year and halve it, because 90 days is weak evidence.
- Expected prices. Project the price forward month by month along that trend: F(t) = index × e^(drift × t).
- This exact contract. Adjust for location and hardware. Europe is 4% higher. PCIe is 15% lower than SXM with InfiniBand.
- Hours left. Count the GPU-hours left in each remaining month. The remaining cost is those hours × the contract price.
- Provider risk. Read a default risk from the provider's bond price. A 78c bond implies about 11% a year of credit spread. Weight later months by the chance the provider is still there.
- Discount. Bring each month back to today at 5% a year.
- Value. Add up hours × (expected market price − contract price), discounted and credit-weighted. If the holder can cancel, months where the market is below the contract price count as zero.
- Range. Re-run with prices one volatility move lower and higher over the contract's midpoint tenor.
- Cents on the dollar. (Remaining cost + value) ÷ remaining cost × 100. Above 100 means the locked price beats the market.
Method v0.1-test. Formulas and assumptions are in the project's valuation note. Buyer credit, seasonality and liquidity are not modelled yet.