Mispriced right now
These markets don’t quite add up
Some event markets list a price for “above $X” at every level. The numbers are supposed to step down as the bar gets higher, since clearing a bigger move is always harder. When they don’t, the prices are crossed, and we flag it here. We don’t model it or take a view; these are just two prices that can’t both be right. It refreshes continuously.
Core CPI (YoY)
Core inflation in September 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
The price to be above 3.1% is sitting higher than the price to be above 3%. Clearing a higher bar is always at least as hard, so those two prices are crossed, about 29¢ per contract out of line.
Fed decision
Fed funds rate after Apr 2027 meeting?
The price to be above 2.5% is sitting higher than the price to be above 2.25%. Clearing a higher bar is always at least as hard, so those two prices are crossed, about 22¢ per contract out of line.
NFL season wins
Pro Football: Washington Total Wins
The price to be above 6 is sitting higher than the price to be above 5. Clearing a higher bar is always at least as hard, so those two prices are crossed, about 7.0¢ per contract out of line.
Fed decision
Fed funds rate after Apr 2027 meeting?
The price to be above 3.25% is sitting higher than the price to be above 3%. Clearing a higher bar is always at least as hard, so those two prices are crossed, about 6.0¢ per contract out of line.
Fed decision
Fed funds rate after Mar 2027 meeting?
The price to be above 2% is sitting higher than the price to be above 1.75%. Clearing a higher bar is always at least as hard, so those two prices are crossed, about 2.0¢ per contract out of line.
Core CPI (YoY)
Core inflation in September 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
The price to be above 2.2% is sitting higher than the price to be above 2.1%. Clearing a higher bar is always at least as hard, so those two prices are crossed, about 2.0¢ per contract out of line.
Core CPI (YoY)
Core inflation in September 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
The price to be above 3.5% is sitting higher than the price to be above 3.4%. Clearing a higher bar is always at least as hard, so those two prices are crossed, about 2.0¢ per contract out of line.
S&P 500
S&P price on Jul 17, 2026 at 3pm EDT?
The price to be above $7,560 is sitting higher than the price to be above $7,555. Clearing a higher bar is always at least as hard, so those two prices are crossed, about 2.0¢ per contract out of line.
NFL season wins
Pro Football: Washington Total Wins
The price to be above 13 is sitting higher than the price to be above 12. Clearing a higher bar is always at least as hard, so those two prices are crossed, about 2.0¢ per contract out of line.
XRP
XRP price at Jul 17, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
The price to be above $1.16 is sitting higher than the price to be above $1.14. Clearing a higher bar is always at least as hard, so those two prices are crossed, about 1.0¢ per contract out of line.
Fed decision
Fed funds rate after Mar 2027 meeting?
The price to be above 1% is sitting higher than the price to be above 0.75%. Clearing a higher bar is always at least as hard, so those two prices are crossed, about 1.0¢ per contract out of line.
WTI crude oil
Oil Price (WTI) on Election Day (November 3, 2026)?
The price to be above $100.99 is sitting higher than the price to be above $99.99. Clearing a higher bar is always at least as hard, so those two prices are crossed, about 1.0¢ per contract out of line.
Fed decision
Fed funds rate after Mar 2027 meeting?
The price to be above 3.25% is sitting higher than the price to be above 3%. Clearing a higher bar is always at least as hard, so those two prices are crossed, about 15¢ per contract out of line.
CPI (MoM)
CPI in November
The price to be above 0.2% is sitting higher than the price to be above 0.1%. Clearing a higher bar is always at least as hard, so those two prices are crossed, about 13¢ per contract out of line.
Fed decision
Fed funds rate after Apr 2027 meeting?
The price to be above 4.25% is sitting higher than the price to be above 4%. Clearing a higher bar is always at least as hard, so those two prices are crossed, about 4.0¢ per contract out of line.
WTI crude oil
Oil Price (WTI) on Election Day (November 3, 2026)?
The price to be above $109.99 is sitting higher than the price to be above $108.99. Clearing a higher bar is always at least as hard, so those two prices are crossed, about 1.5¢ per contract out of line.
CPI (MoM)
CPI in October
The price to be above 0.5% is sitting higher than the price to be above 0.4%. Clearing a higher bar is always at least as hard, so those two prices are crossed, about 32¢ per contract out of line.
Fed decision
Fed funds rate after Apr 2027 meeting?
The price to be above 0.5% is sitting higher than the price to be above 0.25%. Clearing a higher bar is always at least as hard, so those two prices are crossed, about 1.5¢ per contract out of line.
Fed decision
Fed funds rate after Mar 2027 meeting?
The price to be above 0.25% is sitting higher than the price to be above 0%. Clearing a higher bar is always at least as hard, so those two prices are crossed, about 1.0¢ per contract out of line.
Fed decision
Fed funds rate after Apr 2027 meeting?
The price to be above 1% is sitting higher than the price to be above 0.75%. Clearing a higher bar is always at least as hard, so those two prices are crossed, about 16¢ per contract out of line.
US gas price
Gas prices in the US in Aug 2026?
The price to be above $4.40 is sitting higher than the price to be above $4.30. Clearing a higher bar is always at least as hard, so those two prices are crossed, about 1.0¢ per contract out of line.
CPI (MoM)
CPI in October
The price to be above 0.1% is sitting higher than the price to be above 0%. Clearing a higher bar is always at least as hard, so those two prices are crossed, about 3.0¢ per contract out of line.
Fed decision
Fed funds rate after Mar 2027 meeting?
The price to be above 3.75% is sitting higher than the price to be above 3.5%. Clearing a higher bar is always at least as hard, so those two prices are crossed, about 31¢ per contract out of line.
Core CPI (YoY)
Core inflation in November 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
The price to be above 2.1% is sitting higher than the price to be above 2%. Clearing a higher bar is always at least as hard, so those two prices are crossed, about 2.5¢ per contract out of line.
Core CPI (YoY)
Core inflation in September 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
The price to be above 2.4% is sitting higher than the price to be above 2.3%. Clearing a higher bar is always at least as hard, so those two prices are crossed, about 30¢ per contract out of line.
Core CPI (YoY)
Core inflation in November 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
The price to be above 3.4% is sitting higher than the price to be above 3.3%. Clearing a higher bar is always at least as hard, so those two prices are crossed, about 29¢ per contract out of line.
Core CPI (YoY)
Core inflation in November 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
The price to be above 2.8% is sitting higher than the price to be above 2.7%. Clearing a higher bar is always at least as hard, so those two prices are crossed, about 18¢ per contract out of line.
Core CPI (YoY)
Core inflation in November 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
The price to be above 3% is sitting higher than the price to be above 2.9%. Clearing a higher bar is always at least as hard, so those two prices are crossed, about 16¢ per contract out of line.